Consumer Pulse (August 21, 2025): Normalizing Uncertainty

We’ve seen a month of mixed economic news. Consumer confidence made a slight recovery, before dipping again. Wholesale inflation recently increased well above expectations. Tariffs and trade deals continue to make headlines.

Material’s own research shows that U.S. consumers are still price-wary and dug in. Budgeting talk is persistently high; confidence slipped in early August alongside a jump in tariff and uncertainty chatter; inflation and job-loss concerns are creeping back in, though outright economic anxiety is not rising.

Key Findings as of August 18, 2025

• Budgeting stays elevated and steady – Budgeting conversations have held fairly steady and flat since May but are 27% higher than April and roughly 20% higher than their 30-month average.
• Consumer confidence dropped in early August – While confidence had previously recovered in stretches since early April, early August saw a reverse in that trend.  The share of economic confidence conversation dropped from 4.3% in July to 3.9% in April, a notable 9% decline – the fourth steepest in 32 months.
• Confidence appears to have an inverse relationship with the volume of tariff conversations – Tariff conversations hit one of their highest recent levels in early August. When tariff conversation increases, consumer confidence drops. The trade deals in early-August only amplified uncertainty rather than easing it – reminding consumers of the inherent uncertainty that still needs to be navigated moving forward.
• Uncertainty is up but anxiety is down – Uncertainty conversations are up 10% MoM, but anxiety dropped 2.4%. This suggests resignation rather than acute stress—consistent with sustained budgeting.
• Inflation chatter re-accelerates – Conversations about inflation are still about 12% below their 32-month average but are up 20.1% over May. This marks three consecutive monthly increases after a prior downtrend.
• Job insecurity nudges back up – Though down 19% from late-winter peaks, layoff/job-loss conversations are up 7% over July and 11% over May. This is likely tied to seasonal hiring, recent weak job reports and broader uncertainty. Concern skews toward the process and possibility of loss rather than current reality.

What’s next?

What can brands do during times of uncertainty? It begins with gathering insights into consumers’ behavior, motivations and sensitivities. The above findings, for example, suggest consumers are adapting to their economic situations, not panicking. They’ve emotionally plateaued and have moved from high anxiety to normalizing defensive behaviors like budgeting. Being able to meet your customers where they are is the first step to engagement and loyalty, regardless of economic uncertainty.

Stay tuned for more Consumer Pulse updates from Material as we continue to unpack shifts in consumer sentiment and their implications. To learn more about how we leverage Online Anthropology, Material Spotlight and other proprietary methods to unlock rich, timely consumer insights, reach out today.

Methodology

These findings are based on an Online Anthropology™ analysis of 23 million publicly available, naturally occurring consumer messages about their household economic situation from 4,865,009 people between January 1, 2023 – August 15, 2025.  The dataset includes dozens of sub-Reddits, Facebook posts and comments, hundreds of financial-focused forums/message boards and other sources.