Consumer Pulse (July 23, 2025): Less Big Picture, More Personal Finance

Current releases from the U.S. Department of Commerce report decreases in personal income and personal consumption expenditures. Despite these macro trends, other indexes have shown some improvement in consumer sentiment.

These conflicting numbers, as well as Material’s own research, paint a picture of tentative improvement – and at least a temporary reduction in the impact of policy and politics on financial discourse, as consumer conversation zooms in on personal finance.

Key Findings as of July 14, 2025

• Political discourse has (slightly) reduced its grip on financial discussions – The share of political and policy conversation tied to household economics has dropped 51% since April highs, and tariff talk is down 71% from April’s spike – though still seven times more prevalent in July 2025 than the 2023–2024 baseline. Notably, consumers are showing little immediate reaction to tariff threats or policy announcements through mid-July, with many opting to “wait and see” rather than react in real-time.
• Budgeting conversations continue to surge – Households are actively seeking ways to curb expenses amid lingering economic worry. In the first half of July, budget-related discussions surged 30% over April’s numbers, reaching their highest level in the data period. The number of budgeting discussions remains 21% above its 30-month average.
• Economic confidence is up, but still down from 2024 – Since hitting a low in April, confidence has been inching upward, with July marking the strongest reading since December of last year. But this figure remains roughly 7% below the average confidence seen throughout 2024.
• Economic uncertainty remains high – Broader economic uncertainty, while showing some improvement, was still about 180% higher between June 1 and July 14 than its 2023–2024 norm. This underscores that while panic may have subsided, unease persists.
• There are fewer discussions around job security – Chatter related to job security, which peaked in March and held steady in April, has fallen by 24% since spring – but is still 6% above 2024’s monthly average.
• Student loan conversations are at a two-year high – Discussions about student loans are up 57% over 2024’s average, signaling growing anxiety over loan obligations.
• Inflation worries are on the back burner – Talk about inflation has lessened, with July’s 13.1% share the second lowest in the dataset, behind June’s 12.8% and well below 2024’s 18.7% average. Given recent reports that consumer prices have risen 2.7% over last year, pushing inflation to its highest level since February, this trend warrants close monitoring in the coming weeks.

What’s next?

With mixed economic signals, continuing uncertainty and most indicators well below their typical norms, it’s more important than ever to understand consumers’ ongoing concerns and their resulting impact on behaviors. Stay tuned for more Consumer Pulse updates from Material as we continue to unpack shifts in consumer sentiment and their wide-ranging implications.

To learn more about how we leverage Online Anthropology, Material Spotlight and other proprietary methods to unlock rich, timely consumer insights, reach out today.

Methodology

These findings are based on an Online Anthropology™ analysis of 22.4 million publicly available, naturally occurring consumer messages about household economic situations from 4,740,890 individuals between January 1, 2023 and July 14, 2025. This dataset includes conversations from dozens of sub-Reddits, Facebook posts and comments, hundreds of financial-focused forums/message boards and other sources.