Consumer Pulse (July 7, 2026): Rethinking Value as Hope Hits Historic Lows

Consumers’ concerns are, in some ways, less acute than they were in May.

While the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, gas prices have fallen slightly, reducing some long-term worry about the impact of the Iran conflict. This is reflected in a 10.5% increase in consumer sentiment since May.

But sentiment is still down almost 20% YoY, and consumers are far from confident in the economy. In fact, expressions of hope in household economic discussions continue to fall.

Similar to our May research, consumers aren’t panicking but are predicting increases in financial pain when they discuss adapting, budgeting and preparing for the future. 37.2% of consumers’ conversations discuss fear of their economic future, but don’t indicate significant present pain. Only 32.2% indicate significant present pain with no fear for the future. Both “fear” and “pain” conversations are up slightly over May.

Part of what’s changed is a shift in tone. Consumers are increasingly asking whether everyday spending “makes sense.” This is even true in categories (like quick service restaurants) that typically felt reliably affordable. The sense of “guarded readiness” we observed in 2025 has given way to greater discipline around value. Faced with a combination of higher costs and growing consumer reluctance to spend, brands are being forced to re-prove their value to customers who are evaluating their purchase habits across categories.

Here are more key findings from our most recent Online Anthropology™ research.

Expressions of hope at an all-time low.

Showing up in only 2.1% of economic conversations, expressions of hope have declined for six consecutive months and are now at the lowest point in our 3+ years of data, significantly below May’s previous record low of 2.8%.

What’s notable isn’t just the decrease in hope, but the texture of the hope that remains: it’s almost entirely conditional, attached to personal milestones (“we achieved a goal we’d been working toward for years”) rather than any sense that the broader economy will improve. There is virtually no optimism about systemic recovery, just individual pockets of relief where someone made something work against the odds.

Budgeting conversations are at their fourth highest point in 3+ years.

January through June 2026 budgeting conversation is 20.6% higher than the same period in 2025. The increase in budget conversation reflects that transition to value discipline. And consumer inflation conversation is at its highest level in 2026, up 32% from January 2026.

Quick service restaurants (QSRs) are taking a hit based on perceived value.

Consumers are reframing their value equations. For example, one commenter wrote, “$12 for a [single burger meal] is terrible value… I’d only go there for deals now.”

Rather than saying, “I can’t afford this,” consumers are effectively saying, “This no longer earns my money.” This isn’t deprivation; it’s refusal, and consumers are increasingly evaluating brands as if the brands have to re-earn their wallet.

24 months ago, when QSR value was discussed, 40% of those messages compared one QSR brand to another. Today, cross-brand comparison only accounts for 17% of mentions. The more common comparison point (24%) is now simply eating at home.

This recalibration reflects consumers’ feelings that “this is how life works now and I need to adjust.” This isn’t a panic-induced reaction, but rather a deliberate rethinking following sustained uncertainty. This is further reflected in normalization language, like, “This is just what things cost now.” These kinds of statements are up 11% over May and 44% YoY.

Consumers are crowd sourcing economic meaning from everyday signals, and it’s making them nervous.

Notably the largest microeconomic thread in June was a Reddit prompt asking, “What’s your personal recession indicator?” While the responses were varied, top indicators included QSR prices, car sales, job listings, subscription hikes, housing affordability and grocery shopping behavior.

What’s telling is the US economy isn’t currently in a recession, but consumers feel they are — even when considering lower ticket, more frequent spending, like groceries and QSRs. Their economic anxieties are increasingly applied to everyday value judgements, not just big-ticket items.

These value judgements play out differently across industries as consumers develop category-specific survival strategies. Streaming costs are mentioned in 31% of entertainment and economic conversations. But concerts, movie theaters and even sporting events are viewed as discretionary spending that must continually earn a share of wallet; these are something to justify now, rather than just enjoy.

Consumers are adopting new strategies for managing spending.

There are multiple examples of acute panic taking a backseat to behavior modification as consumers adapt to sustained uncertainty.

Discussions of grocery shopping in household economic conversation have increased 6% over May and 21% YoY. These conversations describe somewhat gamified approaches — like shopping at multiple stores, meal planning, deal stacking, warehouse clubs, etc. But the point of these “games” is optimization, not recreation, because trying to game the system has become necessary and normal.

With vacation season in full swing, travel conversations are also going through a recalibration. The number of travel discussions are similar YoY, but consumers indicate they’re traveling differently. They’re redesigning, not eliminating travel plans; this includes shorter trips (21% of conversation), road trips (14%), points-maximization-as-the-destination-decider (4% of conversation) and staying with family (2.4% of conversation), all of which have increased YoY.

What’s next?

Consumers will continue to adapt to economic conditions — gamifying shopping, going without some products and services and rethinking brands’ ultimate value.

To survive, brands need to know what consumers are thinking, feeling and willing to pay. An insights-driven approach can help you boost your perceived value, address changing behaviors and build relationships that can withstand economic uncertainty.

Material’s proprietary social listening solution, Online Anthropology, and other quick-turn research methods like Material Spotlight, offer fast, data-rich and insightful snapshots of the trends, topics and concerns consumers are talking about and why. To learn how Material can help you uncover these kinds of insights and act on them in the moment, reach out today.

Methodology

These findings are based on an Online Anthropology analysis of 29.1 million publicly available, naturally occurring consumer messages posted between January 1, 2023 and June 30, 2026, from 5,726,831 people, about their household economic situations.

The dataset includes dozens of subreddits, Facebook posts and comments and hundreds of finance-focused forums and message boards like moneysavingexpert.com, mrmoneymustache.com, bogleheads.org, zerohedge.com, redflagdeals.com and hundreds more.