Consumer Pulse (May 7, 2025): Rising Uncertainty & Declining Confidence

Consumer expectations for the future have dropped to a 13-year low.

From tariffs and inflation to interest rates and stock market volatility, economic uncertainty is dominating everyday conversation.

To uncover and understand the impact of these shifts on American consumers – and consumerism more broadly – Material is bringing our research expertise to bear on the topic.

Here are our latest findings.

Confusion dominates consumer conversations

Consumers are feeling economically paralyzed. This is driven largely by uncertainty around national policy shifts – especially new tariffs – and rising job insecurity. Conversations from across the country indicate that American households are overwhelmed, unsure how to respond to economic changes and increasingly anxious about the future.

Key Findings as of April 30, 2025

• Unprecedented Household Economic Engagement – The first two weeks of April saw the highest volume of household economic discussion in two years, spurred by national policy changes being felt at a personal level.

• Politics & Tariffs Dominate Conversation – Nearly 1 in 5 household economic conversations referenced politics—a 3.5x increase over 2023. Tariff mentions jumped 11x over 2024 and 91x over 2023, highlighting how deeply these policies have penetrated household awareness.

• Rising Economic Anxiety – Following the tariff announcement on April 2, economic anxiety surged 6.8% above the two-year average and remained elevated throughout the month. Concerns are tightly linked to job security, which reached its highest conversation rate since the spring of 2021.

• Widespread Consumer Confusion – A 4x increase in expressions of uncertainty reflects consumers’ paralysis. Many are unsure whether to make major purchases now or wait, uncertain how long policy impacts will last.

• Budgeting Breakdown – Budgeting conversations spiked post-tariff, then declined in late April as consumers expressed frustration over the unpredictability of prices. Many felt they lacked the information to budget effectively.

• Confidence Declines Sharply – Positive sentiment about household finances dropped 10% following the tariff announcement, the steepest weekly decline recorded. In 2025, there are 1.48 anxious messages for every confident one, up from 1.29 in 2024.

• Student Loans & Inflation Reignite Worry – Student loan discussions surged 80% – the highest since early 2023 – amid fears repayments could be the “final straw” for strained households. Discussions of inflation also spiked to a three-year high before settling at levels still 15% above late 2024.

• Consumer Response: Non-Consumption & Stockpiling – A record number of Americans are actively reducing consumption and leaning on existing goods, with non-consumption at its highest ever level (up 3.4x vs. 2021–24). Stockpiling behaviors also returned to pandemic-era highs.

Methodology

The above findings were drawn from an Online Anthropology™ analysis of 21 million publicly available, naturally occurring consumer messages about household economic situations from 4,493,414 individuals between January 1, 2023 and April 30, 2025. This dataset includes conversations from dozens of sub-Reddits, Facebook posts and comments, hundreds of financial-focused forums/message boards and other sources.

What’s next?

Americans are experiencing growing anxiety and falling confidence around all things economic. Their uncertainty is triggering behaviors like delayed purchases, reduced spending and increased stockpiling. Without greater clarity on economic direction and job stability, household economic sentiment is likely to remain fragile.

In the weeks to follow, Material will provide regular updates on what’s motivating consumers amid ongoing economic shifts – and how you can meet them where they are during uncertain times. To learn more about how we leverage Online Anthropology, Material Spotlight and other proprietary methods to unlock rich, timely consumer insights, reach out today.